How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
South Carolina SC-01
Nancy Lacore vs Jenny Costa Honeycutt
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2579
Raised $4.4M against $1.2M for Jenny Costa Honeycutt.
- Cash weight 2084
$412K in the bank against $79K for Jenny Costa Honeycutt. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1520
Outside groups spent $719K helping Nancy Lacore and $2.9M helping Jenny Costa Honeycutt.
- Activity weight 1025
$230K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2521
Raised $1.2M against $4.4M for Nancy Lacore.
- Cash weight 2016
$79K in the bank against $412K for Nancy Lacore. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1580
Outside groups spent $2.9M helping Jenny Costa Honeycutt and $719K helping Nancy Lacore.
- Activity weight 1025
$48K in Google political ads this cycle.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $79K against $412K.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Nancy Lacore trails by 2.5 and wins 36% of simulations. Closing it takes about 3,592 voters switching sides, or 7,185 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +11.3 and D +6.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$412K cash against $79K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Jenny Costa Honeycutt's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $2.9M helping Jenny Costa Honeycutt and $719K helping Nancy Lacore.
- Protect the lead
Jenny Costa Honeycutt leads by 2.5 in the forecast and wins 64% of simulations. The cushion is about 7,185 votes; a one point swing is about 1,454 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +6.3 and R +11.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$79K cash against $412K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Nancy Lacore's strongest asset
Cash: $412K in the bank against $79K for Jenny Costa Honeycutt.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +2.5
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +6.3 and R +11.3
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +12.6
- Early vote effect
- R +0.1
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Lacore | Honeycutt | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $4.4M | $1.2M |
| Spent | $1.9M | $478K |
| Cash on hand | $412K | $79K |
| Outside money for | $719K | $2.9M |
| Google ads | $230K | $48K |
The early vote
South Carolina, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 389,672
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +20.9
- Forecast expected
- R +20.3
- Against expectation
- 0.6 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.