How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Pennsylvania PA-10
Janelle Stelson vs Scott Perry
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2557
Raised $8.7M against $6.5M for Scott Perry.
- Cash weight 2061
$2.5M in the bank against $1.6M for Scott Perry. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1551
Outside groups spent $5.3M helping Janelle Stelson and $5.1M helping Scott Perry.
- Early vote weight 786
Registered Democrats cast 67% of the 720,664 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 24% for the other party. That is 0.1 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$15K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2543
Raised $6.5M against $8.7M for Janelle Stelson.
- Cash weight 2040
$1.6M in the bank against $2.5M for Janelle Stelson. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1549
Outside groups spent $5.1M helping Scott Perry and $5.3M helping Janelle Stelson.
- Early vote weight 714
Registered Republicans cast 24% of the 720,664 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 67% for the other party. That is 0.1 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$156K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Janelle Stelson leads by 0.4 in the forecast and wins 53% of simulations. The cushion is about 1,428 votes; a one point swing is about 1,785 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +6.6 and D +7.5. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$2.5M cash against $1.6M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 67% of the 720,664 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 24% for the other party. That is 0.1 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points away from Janelle Stelson. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Scott Perry's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $5.1M helping Scott Perry and $5.3M helping Janelle Stelson.
- Close the gap
Scott Perry trails by 0.4 and wins 47% of simulations. Closing it takes about 714 voters switching sides, or 1,428 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +7.5 and R +6.6. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.6M cash against $2.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 24% of the 720,664 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 67% for the other party. That is 0.1 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points toward Scott Perry. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Janelle Stelson's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Democrats cast 67% of the 720,664 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 24% for the other party.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +0.4
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +7.5 and R +6.6
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +6.0
- Early vote effect
- R +0.3
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Stelson | Perry | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $8.7M | $6.5M |
| Spent | $6.2M | $4.9M |
| Cash on hand | $2.5M | $1.6M |
| Outside money for | $5.3M | $5.1M |
| Google ads | $15K | $156K |
The early vote
Pennsylvania, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 720,664
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +43.0
- Forecast expected
- D +43.1
- Against expectation
- 0.1 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.