How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Pennsylvania PA-08
Paige Cognetti vs Rob Bresnahan
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2553
Raised $7.1M against $6.2M for Rob Bresnahan.
- Cash weight 2051
$950K in the bank against $909K for Rob Bresnahan. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1579
Outside groups spent $6.6M helping Paige Cognetti and $1.7M helping Rob Bresnahan.
- Early vote weight 786
Registered Democrats cast 67% of the 720,664 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 24% for the other party. That is 0.1 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$309K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2547
Raised $6.2M against $7.1M for Paige Cognetti.
- Cash weight 2049
$909K in the bank against $950K for Paige Cognetti. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1521
Outside groups spent $1.7M helping Rob Bresnahan and $6.6M helping Paige Cognetti.
- Early vote weight 714
Registered Republicans cast 24% of the 720,664 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 67% for the other party. That is 0.1 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1050
1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $83K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Paige Cognetti leads by 3.5 in the forecast and wins 72% of simulations. The cushion is about 12,646 votes; a one point swing is about 1,786 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +4.8 and D +11.9. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$950K cash against $909K. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 67% of the 720,664 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 24% for the other party. That is 0.1 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points away from Paige Cognetti. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Rob Bresnahan's strongest asset
Activity: 1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
- Close the gap
Rob Bresnahan trails by 3.5 and wins 28% of simulations. Closing it takes about 6,323 voters switching sides, or 12,646 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +11.9 and R +4.8. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$909K cash against $950K. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 24% of the 720,664 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 67% for the other party. That is 0.1 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points toward Rob Bresnahan. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Paige Cognetti's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Democrats cast 67% of the 720,664 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 24% for the other party.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +3.5
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +11.9 and R +4.8
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +7.5
- Early vote effect
- R +0.3
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Cognetti | Bresnahan | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $7.1M | $6.2M |
| Spent | $6.1M | $5.3M |
| Cash on hand | $950K | $909K |
| Outside money for | $6.6M | $1.7M |
| Google ads | $309K | $83K |
The early vote
Pennsylvania, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 720,664
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +43.0
- Forecast expected
- D +43.1
- Against expectation
- 0.1 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-20Nathan Gonzales analyst
Inside Elections moved Rep. Rob Bresnahan's Pennsylvania 8th District from Toss Up to Tilt Democratic. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.