How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Ohio OH-10
Kristina Knickerbocker vs Mike Turner
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2542
Raised $883K against $1.2M for Mike Turner.
- Cash weight 2034
$303K in the bank against $588K for Mike Turner. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1575
Outside groups spent $4.1M helping Kristina Knickerbocker and $1.4M helping Mike Turner.
- National tide weight 1579
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.94 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.2 points of that tide, a tailwind for Kristina Knickerbocker.
- Money weight 2558
Raised $1.2M against $883K for Kristina Knickerbocker.
- Cash weight 2066
$588K in the bank against $303K for Kristina Knickerbocker. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1525
Outside groups spent $1.4M helping Mike Turner and $4.1M helping Kristina Knickerbocker.
- National tide weight 1521
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.94 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.2 points of that tide, a headwind for Mike Turner.
- Activity weight 1025
$14K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Kristina Knickerbocker leads by 0.6 in the forecast and wins 53% of simulations. The cushion is about 2,003 votes; a one point swing is about 1,590 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +7.8 and D +9.0. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$303K cash against $588K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Mike Turner's strongest asset
Cash: $588K in the bank against $303K for Kristina Knickerbocker.
- Close the gap
Mike Turner trails by 0.6 and wins 47% of simulations. Closing it takes about 1,002 voters switching sides, or 2,003 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +9.0 and R +7.8. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$588K cash against $303K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Kristina Knickerbocker's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +0.6
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +9.0 and R +7.8
- Polling average
- R +2.0
- Partisan lean
- R +8.0
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Knickerbocker | Turner | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $883K | $1.2M |
| Spent | $580K | $1.1M |
| Cash on hand | $303K | $588K |
| Outside money for | $4.1M | $1.4M |
| Google ads | $0 | $14K |
The early vote
Ohio, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 1,123,397
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +8.8
- Forecast expected
- D +10.3
- Against expectation
- 1.4 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.