How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Ohio OH-09
Marcy Kaptur vs Derek Merrin
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2575
Raised $5.6M against $1.9M for Derek Merrin.
- Cash weight 2061
$1.2M in the bank against $807K for Derek Merrin. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1568
Outside groups spent $4.9M helping Marcy Kaptur and $2.3M helping Derek Merrin.
- Activity weight 1075
2 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $348K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2525
Raised $1.9M against $5.6M for Marcy Kaptur.
- Cash weight 2039
$807K in the bank against $1.2M for Marcy Kaptur. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1532
Outside groups spent $2.3M helping Derek Merrin and $4.9M helping Marcy Kaptur.
- Activity weight 1025
$203K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Marcy Kaptur leads by 1.0 in the forecast and wins 56% of simulations. The cushion is about 3,309 votes; a one point swing is about 1,591 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +6.9 and D +9.1. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.2M cash against $807K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Derek Merrin's strongest asset
Cash: $807K in the bank against $1.2M for Marcy Kaptur.
- Close the gap
Derek Merrin trails by 1.0 and wins 44% of simulations. Closing it takes about 1,654 voters switching sides, or 3,309 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +9.1 and R +6.9. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$807K cash against $1.2M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Marcy Kaptur's strongest asset
Activity: 2 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +1.0
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +9.1 and R +6.9
- Polling average
- D +3.0
- Partisan lean
- R +11.0
- Early vote effect
- Even
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Kaptur | Merrin | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $5.6M | $1.9M |
| Spent | $4.8M | $1.4M |
| Cash on hand | $1.2M | $807K |
| Outside money for | $4.9M | $2.3M |
| Google ads | $348K | $203K |
The early vote
Ohio, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 974,146
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +8.7
- Forecast expected
- D +9.9
- Against expectation
- 1.1 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-20Nathan Gonzales analyst
Inside Elections moved Rep. Marcy Kaptur's Ohio 9th District from Tilt Republican to Toss Up. Source