How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
New York NY-21
Blake Gendebien vs Anthony Constantino
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2533
Raised $7.2M against $14.5M for Anthony Constantino.
- Cash weight 2046
$2.6M in the bank against $3.0M for Anthony Constantino. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1594
Outside groups spent $658K helping Blake Gendebien and $40K helping Anthony Constantino.
- National tide weight 1572
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.68 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 9.5 points of that tide, a tailwind for Blake Gendebien.
- Activity weight 1025
$349K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2567
Raised $14.5M against $7.2M for Blake Gendebien.
- Cash weight 2054
$3.0M in the bank against $2.6M for Blake Gendebien. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 156
Outside groups spent $40K helping Anthony Constantino and $658K helping Blake Gendebien.
- National tide weight 1528
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.68 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 9.5 points of that tide, a headwind for Anthony Constantino.
- Activity weight 1025
$498K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Blake Gendebien trails by 1.9 and wins 37% of simulations. Closing it takes about 2,948 voters switching sides, or 5,896 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +8.3 and D +4.7. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$2.6M cash against $3.0M. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- Anthony Constantino's strongest asset
Money: Raised $14.5M against $7.2M for Blake Gendebien.
- Protect the lead
Anthony Constantino leads by 1.9 in the forecast and wins 63% of simulations. The cushion is about 5,896 votes; a one point swing is about 1,552 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +4.7 and R +8.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$3.0M cash against $2.6M. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- Blake Gendebien's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $658K helping Blake Gendebien and $40K helping Anthony Constantino.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +1.9
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +4.7 and R +8.3
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +20.2
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Gendebien | Constantino | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $7.2M | $14.5M |
| Spent | $3.1M | $8.7M |
| Cash on hand | $2.6M | $3.0M |
| Outside money for | $658K | $40K |
| Google ads | $349K | $498K |
The early vote
StatewideNo early vote data for New York yet.
Media watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.