How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
New York NY-11
Mike DeCillis vs Nicole Malliotakis
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 255
Raised $156K against $3.3M for Nicole Malliotakis.
- Cash weight 203
$86K in the bank against $2.8M for Nicole Malliotakis. As of 09/30/2026.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $86K against $2.8M.
- Money weight 2596
Raised $3.3M against $156K for Mike DeCillis.
- Cash weight 2097
$2.8M in the bank against $86K for Mike DeCillis. As of 09/30/2026.
- Activity weight 1025
$24K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Mike DeCillis trails by 1.2 and wins 43% of simulations. Closing it takes about 1,929 voters switching sides, or 3,859 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +9.9 and D +7.7. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$86K cash against $2.8M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Nicole Malliotakis's strongest asset
Cash: $2.8M in the bank against $86K for Mike DeCillis.
- Protect the lead
Nicole Malliotakis leads by 1.2 in the forecast and wins 57% of simulations. The cushion is about 3,859 votes; a one point swing is about 1,569 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +7.7 and R +9.9. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$2.8M cash against $86K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Mike DeCillis's strongest asset
Money: Raised $156K against $3.3M for Nicole Malliotakis.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +1.2
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +7.7 and R +9.9
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- R +17.8
- Early vote effect
- D +0.1
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| DeCillis | Malliotakis | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $156K | $3.3M |
| Spent | $69K | $1.8M |
| Cash on hand | $86K | $2.8M |
| Outside money for | $0 | $0 |
| Google ads | $0 | $24K |
The early vote
StatewideNo early vote data for New York yet.
Media watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.