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Nebraska NE-01
Chris Backemeyer vs Mike Flood
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2527
Raised $1.0M against $2.7M for Mike Flood.
- Cash weight 2031
$546K in the bank against $1.2M for Mike Flood. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 15100
Outside groups spent $815K helping Chris Backemeyer and $0 helping Mike Flood.
- Early vote weight 758
Registered Democrats cast 41% of the 136,433 ballots in Nebraska so far, against 42% for the other party. That is 8.4 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$2K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2573
Raised $2.7M against $1.0M for Chris Backemeyer.
- Cash weight 2069
$1.2M in the bank against $546K for Chris Backemeyer. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 150
Outside groups spent $0 helping Mike Flood and $815K helping Chris Backemeyer.
- Early vote weight 742
Registered Republicans cast 42% of the 136,433 ballots in Nebraska so far, against 41% for the other party. That is 8.4 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$12K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Chris Backemeyer leads by 1.5 in the forecast and wins 59% of simulations. The cushion is about 3,817 votes; a one point swing is about 1,281 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +6.8 and D +9.6. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$546K cash against $1.2M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 41% of the 136,433 ballots in Nebraska so far, against 42% for the other party. That is 8.4 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.7 points toward Chris Backemeyer. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Mike Flood's strongest asset
Money: Raised $2.7M against $1.0M for Chris Backemeyer.
- Close the gap
Mike Flood trails by 1.5 and wins 41% of simulations. Closing it takes about 1,908 voters switching sides, or 3,817 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +9.6 and R +6.8. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.2M cash against $546K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 42% of the 136,433 ballots in Nebraska so far, against 41% for the other party. That is 8.4 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.7 points away from Mike Flood. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Chris Backemeyer's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $815K helping Chris Backemeyer and $0 helping Mike Flood.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +1.5
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +9.6 and R +6.8
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +13.7
- Early vote effect
- D +1.7
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Backemeyer | Flood | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.0M | $2.7M |
| Spent | $487K | $1.7M |
| Cash on hand | $546K | $1.2M |
| Outside money for | $815K | $0 |
| Google ads | $2K | $12K |
The early vote
Nebraska, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 136,433
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +0.6
- Forecast expected
- R +8.9
- Against expectation
- 8.4 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.