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North Carolina NC-03
Raymond Smith Jr. vs Greg Murphy
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2511
Raised $344K against $2.8M for Greg Murphy.
- Cash weight 203
$74K in the bank against $2.7M for Greg Murphy. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1566
Outside groups spent $345K helping Raymond Smith Jr. and $181K helping Greg Murphy.
- Early vote weight 768
Registered Democrats cast 41% of the 1,773,889 ballots in North Carolina so far, against 24% for the other party. That is 1.8 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1577
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.88 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.3 points of that tide, a tailwind for Raymond Smith Jr..
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $74K against $2.7M.
- Money weight 2589
Raised $2.8M against $344K for Raymond Smith Jr..
- Cash weight 2097
$2.7M in the bank against $74K for Raymond Smith Jr.. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1534
Outside groups spent $181K helping Greg Murphy and $345K helping Raymond Smith Jr..
- Early vote weight 732
Registered Republicans cast 24% of the 1,773,889 ballots in North Carolina so far, against 41% for the other party. That is 1.8 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1523
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.88 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.3 points of that tide, a headwind for Greg Murphy.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Raymond Smith Jr. trails by 3.0 and wins 32% of simulations. Closing it takes about 4,680 voters switching sides, or 9,361 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +11.1 and D +5.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$74K cash against $2.7M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 41% of the 1,773,889 ballots in North Carolina so far, against 24% for the other party. That is 1.8 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Greg Murphy's strongest asset
Cash: $2.7M in the bank against $74K for Raymond Smith Jr..
- Protect the lead
Greg Murphy leads by 3.0 in the forecast and wins 68% of simulations. The cushion is about 9,361 votes; a one point swing is about 1,576 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +5.2 and R +11.1. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$2.7M cash against $74K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 24% of the 1,773,889 ballots in North Carolina so far, against 41% for the other party. That is 1.8 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Raymond Smith Jr.'s strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +3.0
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +5.2 and R +11.1
- Polling average
- R +2.0
- Partisan lean
- R +14.7
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Smith | Murphy | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $344K | $2.8M |
| Spent | $137K | $1.2M |
| Cash on hand | $74K | $2.7M |
| Outside money for | $345K | $181K |
| Google ads | $0 | $0 |
The early vote
North Carolina, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 1,773,889
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +16.7
- Forecast expected
- D +18.5
- Against expectation
- 1.8 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
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