How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Montana MT-01
Sam Forstag vs Aaron Flint
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2558
Raised $3.7M against $2.6M for Aaron Flint.
- Cash weight 2035
$550K in the bank against $1.0M for Aaron Flint. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1540
Outside groups spent $3.8M helping Sam Forstag and $5.7M helping Aaron Flint.
- Activity weight 1025
$173K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2542
Raised $2.6M against $3.7M for Sam Forstag.
- Cash weight 2065
$1.0M in the bank against $550K for Sam Forstag. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1560
Outside groups spent $5.7M helping Aaron Flint and $3.8M helping Sam Forstag.
- Activity weight 1050
2 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $60K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Sam Forstag trails by 0.9 and wins 44% of simulations. Closing it takes about 1,344 voters switching sides, or 2,687 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +9.7 and D +7.5. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$550K cash against $1.0M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points toward Sam Forstag. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Aaron Flint's strongest asset
Cash: $1.0M in the bank against $550K for Sam Forstag.
- Protect the lead
Aaron Flint leads by 0.9 in the forecast and wins 56% of simulations. The cushion is about 2,687 votes; a one point swing is about 1,414 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +7.5 and R +9.7. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.0M cash against $550K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points away from Aaron Flint. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Sam Forstag's strongest asset
Money: Raised $3.7M against $2.6M for Aaron Flint.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +0.9
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +7.5 and R +9.7
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +11.3
- Early vote effect
- D +0.4
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Forstag | Flint | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $3.7M | $2.6M |
| Spent | $833K | $1.6M |
| Cash on hand | $550K | $1.0M |
| Outside money for | $3.8M | $5.7M |
| Google ads | $173K | $60K |
The early vote
Montana, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 171,981
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +14.8
- Forecast expected
- D +13.4
- Against expectation
- 1.4 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watch