How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Minnesota MN-01
Jake Johnson vs Brad Finstad
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2555
Raised $3.2M against $2.6M for Brad Finstad.
- Cash weight 2048
$1.0M in the bank against $1.1M for Brad Finstad. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1571
Outside groups spent $3.2M helping Jake Johnson and $1.4M helping Brad Finstad.
- Activity weight 1050
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $46K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2545
Raised $2.6M against $3.2M for Jake Johnson.
- Cash weight 2052
$1.1M in the bank against $1.0M for Jake Johnson. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1529
Outside groups spent $1.4M helping Brad Finstad and $3.2M helping Jake Johnson.
- Activity weight 1025
$700 in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Jake Johnson trails by 1.0 and wins 44% of simulations. Closing it takes about 1,726 voters switching sides, or 3,451 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +9.4 and D +7.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.0M cash against $1.1M. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- Brad Finstad's strongest asset
Cash: $1.1M in the bank against $1.0M for Jake Johnson.
- Protect the lead
Brad Finstad leads by 1.0 in the forecast and wins 56% of simulations. The cushion is about 3,451 votes; a one point swing is about 1,743 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +7.3 and R +9.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.1M cash against $1.0M. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- Jake Johnson's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $3.2M helping Jake Johnson and $1.4M helping Brad Finstad.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +1.0
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +7.3 and R +9.4
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +12.2
- Early vote effect
- Even
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Johnson | Finstad | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $3.2M | $2.6M |
| Spent | $2.2M | $1.6M |
| Cash on hand | $1.0M | $1.1M |
| Outside money for | $3.2M | $1.4M |
| Google ads | $46K | $700 |
The early vote
Minnesota, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 419,189
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +31.6
- Forecast expected
- D +32.0
- Against expectation
- 0.4 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-10Peggy Flanagan event in Eden Prairie
Press conference on reproductive rights with Rep. Kelly Morrison and Planned Parenthood leaders Alexis McGill Johnson and Ruth Richardson. Source