How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Michigan MI-10
Christina Hines vs Michael Bouchard
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2560
Raised $3.5M against $2.4M for Michael Bouchard.
- Cash weight 2048
$1.4M in the bank against $1.5M for Michael Bouchard. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1581
Outside groups spent $7.9M helping Christina Hines and $1.9M helping Michael Bouchard.
- Activity weight 1025
$90K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2540
Raised $2.4M against $3.5M for Christina Hines.
- Cash weight 2052
$1.5M in the bank against $1.4M for Christina Hines. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1519
Outside groups spent $1.9M helping Michael Bouchard and $7.9M helping Christina Hines.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Christina Hines leads by 0.7 in the forecast and wins 54% of simulations. The cushion is about 2,486 votes; a one point swing is about 1,913 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +7.5 and D +8.7. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.4M cash against $1.5M. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points toward Christina Hines. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Michael Bouchard's strongest asset
Cash: $1.5M in the bank against $1.4M for Christina Hines.
- Close the gap
Michael Bouchard trails by 0.7 and wins 46% of simulations. Closing it takes about 1,243 voters switching sides, or 2,486 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +8.7 and R +7.5. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.5M cash against $1.4M. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points away from Michael Bouchard. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Christina Hines's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $7.9M helping Christina Hines and $1.9M helping Michael Bouchard.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +0.7
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +8.7 and R +7.5
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +5.6
- Early vote effect
- D +0.4
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Hines | Bouchard | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $3.5M | $2.4M |
| Spent | $2.1M | $1.0M |
| Cash on hand | $1.4M | $1.5M |
| Outside money for | $7.9M | $1.9M |
| Google ads | $90K | $0 |
The early vote
Michigan, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 986,207
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +35.5
- Forecast expected
- D +33.5
- Against expectation
- 2.0 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.