How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Iowa IA-03
Sarah Trone Garriott vs Zach Nunn
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2556
Raised $7.7M against $6.0M for Zach Nunn.
- Cash weight 2036
$2.0M in the bank against $3.6M for Zach Nunn. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1570
Outside groups spent $3.9M helping Sarah Trone Garriott and $1.7M helping Zach Nunn.
- Early vote weight 768
Registered Democrats cast 51% of the 207,774 ballots in Iowa so far, against 32% for the other party. That is 4.7 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$240K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2544
Raised $6.0M against $7.7M for Sarah Trone Garriott.
- Cash weight 2064
$3.6M in the bank against $2.0M for Sarah Trone Garriott. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1531
Outside groups spent $1.7M helping Zach Nunn and $3.9M helping Sarah Trone Garriott.
- Early vote weight 732
Registered Republicans cast 32% of the 207,774 ballots in Iowa so far, against 51% for the other party. That is 4.7 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$66K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Sarah Trone Garriott leads by 5.4 in the forecast and wins 82% of simulations. The cushion is about 18,728 votes; a one point swing is about 1,721 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +2.6 and D +13.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$2.0M cash against $3.6M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 51% of the 207,774 ballots in Iowa so far, against 32% for the other party. That is 4.7 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 2.0 points away from Sarah Trone Garriott. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Zach Nunn's strongest asset
Cash: $3.6M in the bank against $2.0M for Sarah Trone Garriott.
- Close the gap
Zach Nunn trails by 5.4 and wins 18% of simulations. Closing it takes about 9,364 voters switching sides, or 18,728 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +13.2 and R +2.6. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$3.6M cash against $2.0M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 32% of the 207,774 ballots in Iowa so far, against 51% for the other party. That is 4.7 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 2.0 points toward Zach Nunn. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Sarah Trone Garriott's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $3.9M helping Sarah Trone Garriott and $1.7M helping Zach Nunn.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +5.4
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +13.2 and R +2.6
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +3.5
- Early vote effect
- R +2.0
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Garriott | Nunn | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $7.7M | $6.0M |
| Spent | $5.7M | $1.4M |
| Cash on hand | $2.0M | $3.6M |
| Outside money for | $3.9M | $1.7M |
| Google ads | $241K | $66K |
The early vote
Iowa, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 207,774
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +18.9
- Forecast expected
- D +23.6
- Against expectation
- 4.7 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-08-17Pete Hegseth event in Des Moines
Defense Secretary campaigned at the Iowa State Fair. Source