How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Iowa IA-02
Lindsay James vs Joe Mitchell
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2557
Raised $3.5M against $2.7M for Joe Mitchell.
- Cash weight 2046
$756K in the bank against $896K for Joe Mitchell. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1559
Outside groups spent $5.5M helping Lindsay James and $3.8M helping Joe Mitchell.
- Early vote weight 768
Registered Democrats cast 51% of the 207,774 ballots in Iowa so far, against 32% for the other party. That is 4.7 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$191K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2543
Raised $2.7M against $3.5M for Lindsay James.
- Cash weight 2054
$896K in the bank against $756K for Lindsay James. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1541
Outside groups spent $3.8M helping Joe Mitchell and $5.5M helping Lindsay James.
- Early vote weight 732
Registered Republicans cast 32% of the 207,774 ballots in Iowa so far, against 51% for the other party. That is 4.7 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1050
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $163K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Lindsay James leads by 0.5 in the forecast and wins 53% of simulations. The cushion is about 1,856 votes; a one point swing is about 1,718 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +7.1 and D +8.1. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$756K cash against $896K. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 51% of the 207,774 ballots in Iowa so far, against 32% for the other party. That is 4.7 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 2.0 points away from Lindsay James. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Joe Mitchell's strongest asset
Cash: $896K in the bank against $756K for Lindsay James.
- Close the gap
Joe Mitchell trails by 0.5 and wins 47% of simulations. Closing it takes about 928 voters switching sides, or 1,856 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +8.1 and R +7.1. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$896K cash against $756K. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 32% of the 207,774 ballots in Iowa so far, against 51% for the other party. That is 4.7 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 2.0 points toward Joe Mitchell. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Lindsay James's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Democrats cast 51% of the 207,774 ballots in Iowa so far, against 32% for the other party.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +0.5
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +8.1 and R +7.1
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +8.6
- Early vote effect
- R +2.0
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| James | Mitchell | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $3.5M | $2.7M |
| Spent | $872K | $1.0M |
| Cash on hand | $756K | $896K |
| Outside money for | $5.5M | $3.8M |
| Google ads | $191K | $163K |
The early vote
Iowa, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 207,774
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +18.9
- Forecast expected
- D +23.6
- Against expectation
- 4.7 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-08Kay Henderson host
Moderated the Iowa PBS debate between Lindsay James and Joe Mitchell. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-23Zach Lahn announced in Clear Lake
Cerro Gordo County meet and greet at the Surf Music Experience Center with special guest Joe Mitchell. Listed on his campaign events page. Source