How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Florida FL-27
Elliott Rodriguez vs Maria Elvira Salazar
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2522
Raised $661K against $2.4M for Maria Elvira Salazar.
- Cash weight 2013
$325K in the bank against $2.3M for Maria Elvira Salazar. As of 07/29/2026.
- Air cover weight 1573
Outside groups spent $440K helping Elliott Rodriguez and $160K helping Maria Elvira Salazar.
- Early vote weight 743
Registered Democrats cast 40% of the 2,522,664 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.5 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$54K in Google political ads this cycle.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $325K against $2.3M.
- Money weight 2578
Raised $2.4M against $661K for Elliott Rodriguez.
- Cash weight 2087
$2.3M in the bank against $325K for Elliott Rodriguez. As of 07/29/2026.
- Air cover weight 1527
Outside groups spent $160K helping Maria Elvira Salazar and $440K helping Elliott Rodriguez.
- Early vote weight 757
Registered Republicans cast 40% of the 2,522,664 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.5 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$86K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Elliott Rodriguez trails by 4.2 and wins 27% of simulations. Closing it takes about 6,781 voters switching sides, or 13,562 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +13.2 and D +4.5. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$325K cash against $2.3M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 40% of the 2,522,664 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.5 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.9 points away from Elliott Rodriguez. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Maria Elvira Salazar's strongest asset
Cash: $2.3M in the bank against $325K for Elliott Rodriguez.
- Protect the lead
Maria Elvira Salazar leads by 4.2 in the forecast and wins 73% of simulations. The cushion is about 13,562 votes; a one point swing is about 1,615 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +4.5 and R +13.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$2.3M cash against $325K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 40% of the 2,522,664 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.5 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.9 points toward Maria Elvira Salazar. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Elliott Rodriguez's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $440K helping Elliott Rodriguez and $160K helping Maria Elvira Salazar.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +4.2
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +4.5 and R +13.2
- Polling average
- R +2.0
- Partisan lean
- R +11.7
- Early vote effect
- R +1.9
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 07/29/2026| Rodriguez | Salazar | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $661K | $2.4M |
| Spent | $336K | $1.2M |
| Cash on hand | $325K | $2.3M |
| Outside money for | $440K | $160K |
| Google ads | $54K | $86K |
The early vote
Florida, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 2,522,664
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +0.3
- Forecast expected
- D +6.2
- Against expectation
- 6.5 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.