How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Florida FL-26
Nicole Locklin vs Mario Diaz-Balart
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2518
Raised $561K against $2.6M for Mario Diaz-Balart.
- Cash weight 206
$132K in the bank against $2.1M for Mario Diaz-Balart. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 15100
Outside groups spent $56K helping Nicole Locklin and $0 helping Mario Diaz-Balart.
- Early vote weight 743
Registered Democrats cast 40% of the 2,522,664 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.5 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$2K in Google political ads this cycle.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $132K against $2.1M.
- Money weight 2582
Raised $2.6M against $561K for Nicole Locklin.
- Cash weight 2094
$2.1M in the bank against $132K for Nicole Locklin. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 150
Outside groups spent $0 helping Mario Diaz-Balart and $56K helping Nicole Locklin.
- Early vote weight 757
Registered Republicans cast 40% of the 2,522,664 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.5 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1050
1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $14K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Nicole Locklin trails by 2.3 and wins 36% of simulations. Closing it takes about 3,771 voters switching sides, or 7,542 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +10.9 and D +6.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$132K cash against $2.1M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 40% of the 2,522,664 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.5 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.9 points away from Nicole Locklin. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Mario Diaz-Balart's strongest asset
Cash: $2.1M in the bank against $132K for Nicole Locklin.
- Protect the lead
Mario Diaz-Balart leads by 2.3 in the forecast and wins 64% of simulations. The cushion is about 7,542 votes; a one point swing is about 1,633 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +6.2 and R +10.9. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$2.1M cash against $132K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 40% of the 2,522,664 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.5 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.9 points toward Mario Diaz-Balart. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Nicole Locklin's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $56K helping Nicole Locklin and $0 helping Mario Diaz-Balart.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +2.3
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +6.2 and R +10.9
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- R +14.7
- Early vote effect
- R +1.9
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Locklin | Diaz-Balart | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $561K | $2.6M |
| Spent | $429K | $2.4M |
| Cash on hand | $132K | $2.1M |
| Outside money for | $56K | $0 |
| Google ads | $2K | $14K |
The early vote
Florida, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 2,522,664
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +0.3
- Forecast expected
- D +6.2
- Against expectation
- 6.5 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-16Saagar Enjeti host, leans other
Breaking Points, which he co-hosts with Krystal Ball, featured Democrat Nicole Lachland's challenge to Republican Mario Diaz-Balart as a sign of a Hispanic shift in South Florida. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.