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Colorado CO-05
Jessica Killin vs Jeff Crank
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2564
Raised $5.0M against $2.8M for Jeff Crank.
- Cash weight 2041
$702K in the bank against $1.0M for Jeff Crank. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1530
Outside groups spent $1.4M helping Jessica Killin and $3.4M helping Jeff Crank.
- Early vote weight 765
Registered Democrats cast 33% of the 727,322 ballots in Colorado so far, against 25% for the other party. That is 4.9 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$181K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2536
Raised $2.8M against $5.0M for Jessica Killin.
- Cash weight 2059
$1.0M in the bank against $702K for Jessica Killin. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1570
Outside groups spent $3.4M helping Jeff Crank and $1.4M helping Jessica Killin.
- Early vote weight 735
Registered Republicans cast 25% of the 727,322 ballots in Colorado so far, against 33% for the other party. That is 4.9 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$72K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Jessica Killin trails by 3.1 and wins 28% of simulations. Closing it takes about 5,457 voters switching sides, or 10,915 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +10.0 and D +4.0. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$702K cash against $1.0M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 33% of the 727,322 ballots in Colorado so far, against 25% for the other party. That is 4.9 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.1 points toward Jessica Killin. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Jeff Crank's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $3.4M helping Jeff Crank and $1.4M helping Jessica Killin.
- Protect the lead
Jeff Crank leads by 3.1 in the forecast and wins 72% of simulations. The cushion is about 10,915 votes; a one point swing is about 1,778 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +4.0 and R +10.0. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.0M cash against $702K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 25% of the 727,322 ballots in Colorado so far, against 33% for the other party. That is 4.9 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.1 points away from Jeff Crank. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Jessica Killin's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Democrats cast 33% of the 727,322 ballots in Colorado so far, against 25% for the other party.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +3.1
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +4.0 and R +10.0
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +11.3
- Early vote effect
- D +1.1
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Killin | Crank | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $5.0M | $2.8M |
| Spent | $4.3M | $1.8M |
| Cash on hand | $702K | $1.0M |
| Outside money for | $1.4M | $3.4M |
| Google ads | $181K | $72K |
The early vote
Colorado, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 727,322
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +8.2
- Forecast expected
- D +3.3
- Against expectation
- 4.9 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.