How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Colorado CO-04
Eileen Laubacher vs Lauren Boebert
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2592
Raised $13.0M against $1.2M for Lauren Boebert.
- Cash weight 2094
$3.6M in the bank against $247K for Lauren Boebert. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1578
Outside groups spent $1.5M helping Eileen Laubacher and $444K helping Lauren Boebert.
- Early vote weight 765
Registered Democrats cast 33% of the 727,322 ballots in Colorado so far, against 25% for the other party. That is 4.9 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$107K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 258
Raised $1.2M against $13.0M for Eileen Laubacher.
- Cash weight 206
$247K in the bank against $3.6M for Eileen Laubacher. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1522
Outside groups spent $444K helping Lauren Boebert and $1.5M helping Eileen Laubacher.
- Early vote weight 735
Registered Republicans cast 25% of the 727,322 ballots in Colorado so far, against 33% for the other party. That is 4.9 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$800 in Google political ads this cycle.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $247K against $3.6M.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Eileen Laubacher trails by 2.4 and wins 31% of simulations. Closing it takes about 4,302 voters switching sides, or 8,604 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +9.4 and D +4.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$3.6M cash against $247K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 33% of the 727,322 ballots in Colorado so far, against 25% for the other party. That is 4.9 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.1 points toward Eileen Laubacher. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Lauren Boebert's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Republicans cast 25% of the 727,322 ballots in Colorado so far, against 33% for the other party.
- Protect the lead
Lauren Boebert leads by 2.4 in the forecast and wins 69% of simulations. The cushion is about 8,604 votes; a one point swing is about 1,778 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +4.4 and R +9.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$247K cash against $3.6M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 25% of the 727,322 ballots in Colorado so far, against 33% for the other party. That is 4.9 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.1 points away from Lauren Boebert. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Eileen Laubacher's strongest asset
Cash: $3.6M in the bank against $247K for Lauren Boebert.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +2.4
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +4.4 and R +9.4
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +20.5
- Early vote effect
- D +1.1
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Laubacher | Boebert | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $13.0M | $1.2M |
| Spent | $6.7M | $922K |
| Cash on hand | $3.6M | $247K |
| Outside money for | $1.5M | $444K |
| Google ads | $107K | $800 |
The early vote
Colorado, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 727,322
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +8.2
- Forecast expected
- D +3.3
- Against expectation
- 4.9 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.