How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Arizona AZ-08
Bernadette Greene-Placentia vs Abraham Hamadeh
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2515
Raised $237K against $1.4M for Abraham Hamadeh.
- Cash weight 2014
$22K in the bank against $138K for Abraham Hamadeh. As of 09/30/2026.
- Early vote weight 754
Registered Democrats cast 39% of the 843,454 ballots in Arizona so far, against 38% for the other party. That is 3.4 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $22K against $138K.
- Money weight 2585
Raised $1.4M against $237K for Bernadette Greene-Placentia.
- Cash weight 2086
$138K in the bank against $22K for Bernadette Greene-Placentia. As of 09/30/2026.
- Early vote weight 747
Registered Republicans cast 38% of the 843,454 ballots in Arizona so far, against 39% for the other party. That is 3.4 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$11K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Bernadette Greene-Placentia trails by 0.0 and wins 50% of simulations. Closing it takes about 53 voters switching sides, or 106 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +8.3 and D +8.0. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$22K cash against $138K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 39% of the 843,454 ballots in Arizona so far, against 38% for the other party. That is 3.4 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points toward Bernadette Greene-Placentia. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Abraham Hamadeh's strongest asset
Cash: $138K in the bank against $22K for Bernadette Greene-Placentia.
- Protect the lead
Abraham Hamadeh leads by 0.0 in the forecast and wins 50% of simulations. The cushion is about 106 votes; a one point swing is about 1,759 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +8.0 and R +8.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$138K cash against $22K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 38% of the 843,454 ballots in Arizona so far, against 39% for the other party. That is 3.4 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points away from Abraham Hamadeh. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Bernadette Greene-Placentia's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Democrats cast 39% of the 843,454 ballots in Arizona so far, against 38% for the other party.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- Even
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +8.0 and R +8.3
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- R +16.6
- Early vote effect
- D +0.4
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Greene-Placentia | Hamadeh | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $237K | $1.4M |
| Spent | $23K | $1.3M |
| Cash on hand | $22K | $138K |
| Outside money for | $0 | $0 |
| Google ads | $0 | $11K |
The early vote
Arizona, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 843,454
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +0.1
- Forecast expected
- R +3.3
- Against expectation
- 3.4 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.