How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Alaska AK-01
Bill Hill vs Nick Begich III
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2527
Raised $2.3M against $6.3M for Nick Begich III.
- Cash weight 2014
$516K in the bank against $3.1M for Nick Begich III. As of 07/29/2026.
- Air cover weight 1568
Outside groups spent $7.9M helping Bill Hill and $3.7M helping Nick Begich III.
- National tide weight 1580
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.00 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.0 points of that tide, a tailwind for Bill Hill.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $516K against $3.1M.
- Money weight 2573
Raised $6.3M against $2.3M for Bill Hill.
- Cash weight 2086
$3.1M in the bank against $516K for Bill Hill. As of 07/29/2026.
- Air cover weight 1532
Outside groups spent $3.7M helping Nick Begich III and $7.9M helping Bill Hill.
- National tide weight 1520
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.00 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.0 points of that tide, a headwind for Nick Begich III.
- Activity weight 1025
$61K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Bill Hill trails by 1.6 and wins 38% of simulations. Closing it takes about 2,272 voters switching sides, or 4,544 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +8.4 and D +5.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$516K cash against $3.1M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Nick Begich III's strongest asset
Cash: $3.1M in the bank against $516K for Bill Hill.
- Protect the lead
Nick Begich III leads by 1.6 in the forecast and wins 62% of simulations. The cushion is about 4,544 votes; a one point swing is about 1,457 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +5.2 and R +8.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$3.1M cash against $516K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Bill Hill's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +1.6
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +5.2 and R +8.4
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +13.5
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 07/29/2026| Hill | Begich | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $2.3M | $6.3M |
| Spent | $820K | $2.5M |
| Cash on hand | $516K | $3.1M |
| Outside money for | $7.9M | $3.7M |
| Google ads | $0 | $61K |
The early vote
Alaska, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 46,204
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +7.0
- Forecast expected
- R +6.5
- Against expectation
- 0.6 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.