How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Nevada Governor
Aaron Ford vs Joe Lombardo
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2540
Raised $1.4M against $2.1M for Joe Lombardo.
- Cash weight 2032
$1.3M in the bank against $2.8M for Joe Lombardo.
- Early vote weight 1561
Registered Democrats cast 39% of the 325,498 ballots in Nevada so far, against 36% for the other party. That is 6.5 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1050
7 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
- Money weight 2560
Raised $2.1M against $1.4M for Aaron Ford.
- Cash weight 2068
$2.8M in the bank against $1.3M for Aaron Ford.
- Early vote weight 1539
Registered Republicans cast 36% of the 325,498 ballots in Nevada so far, against 39% for the other party. That is 6.5 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Aaron Ford leads by 3.7 in the forecast and wins 74% of simulations. The cushion is about 46,108 votes; a one point swing is about 6,164 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +3.8 and D +11.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +3.0. Your best recent poll is Noble Predictive Insights at R +2.5; your worst is Global Strategy Group for Ford (D) at R +3.5. 2 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Clark, a projected net 104,423 votes; Washoe, a projected net 3,370 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Washoe, D +1.5, 18.0% of the vote; Carson City, R +11.8, 2.2% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Aaron Ford runs furthest behind in Carson City, Douglas, Washoe. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Large counties, 87% of voters, 52 to 43, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.34 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 64% of voters, 51 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.21 points; Voters without a degree, 62% of voters, 49 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.10 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Aaron Ford: Immigration voters 20 to 78, Small counties 28 to 66, White voters 37 to 58. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.3M cash against $2.8M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 39% of the 325,498 ballots in Nevada so far, against 36% for the other party. That is 6.5 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.3 points toward Aaron Ford. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Joe Lombardo's strongest asset
Cash: $2.8M in the bank against $1.3M for Aaron Ford.
- Close the gap
Joe Lombardo trails by 3.7 and wins 26% of simulations. Closing it takes about 23,054 voters switching sides, or 46,108 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +11.3 and R +3.8. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +3.0. Your best recent poll is Global Strategy Group for Ford (D) at R +3.5; your worst is Noble Predictive Insights at R +2.5. 2 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Lyon, a projected net 11,994 votes; Elko, a projected net 10,265 votes; Douglas, a projected net 10,025 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Washoe, D +1.5, 18.0% of the vote; Carson City, R +11.8, 2.2% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Joe Lombardo runs furthest behind in Clark. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Large counties, 87% of voters, 43 to 52, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.34 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 64% of voters, 47 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.21 points; Voters without a degree, 62% of voters, 47 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.10 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Joe Lombardo: Black voters 17 to 79, Health care and Social Security voters 28 to 70, Asian and other voters 27 to 68. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.8M cash against $1.3M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 36% of the 325,498 ballots in Nevada so far, against 39% for the other party. That is 6.5 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.3 points away from Joe Lombardo. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Aaron Ford's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Democrats cast 39% of the 325,498 ballots in Nevada so far, against 36% for the other party.
The map for Ford
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clark | D +12.3 | 68.9% | +104,423 |
| Washoe | D +1.5 | 18% | +3,370 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washoe | D +1.5 | 18% | +3,370 |
| Carson City | R +11.8 | 2.2% | -3,115 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carson City | R +11.8 | 2.2% | -3,115 |
| Douglas | R +33.2 | 2.4% | -10,025 |
| Washoe | D +1.5 | 18% | +3,370 |
The coalition
Ford against Lombardo among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Large counties87% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.3
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202464% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.2
- Voters without a degree62% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Immigration voters11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Small counties13% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
- White voters58% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +3.7
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +11.3 and R +3.8
- Polling average
- R +3.0
- Partisan lean
- R +1.7
- Early vote effect
- D +1.3
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group for Ford (D) | 2 | 700 LV | R +3.5 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 19 | 708 LV | R +2.5 |
| Emerson College | 37 | 680 LV | D +2.7 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Ford | Lombardo | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.4M | $2.1M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $1.3M | $2.8M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$10.5M
The early vote
Nevada, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 325,498
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +3.4
- Forecast expected
- R +3.0
- Against expectation
- 6.5 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-14Brian Tyler Cohen podcaster, leans D
Interviewed Democratic governor candidate Aaron Ford. Source
- 2026-09-29Charlamagne tha God host, leans other
Pressed Democratic candidate Aaron Ford on The Breakfast Club for citing Trump as his reason to run and demanded his own vision for Nevada. Source
- 2026-09-22Larry Sabato analyst
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the Nevada governor race from Leans Republican to Toss-up. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-22Mark Kelly event in Las Vegas
Canvass launch and phone bank with Gabby Giffords, Ford and Titus, per the Nevada Independent visit tracker; Kelly also sat on an IndyFest panel. Source
- 2026-10-22Rahm Emanuel event in Las Vegas
Joined the same canvass launch and phone bank with Giffords, Ford and Titus, per the Nevada Independent visit tracker. Source
- 2026-10-21Kamala Harris event in Las Vegas
Culinary Union membership meeting launching her final midterm swing. Source
- 2026-10-17Aaron Ford event in Las Vegas
Cast his ballot at a downtown Las Vegas polling place on day one of early voting with his wife and supporters. Source
- 2026-10-07Pete Buttigieg fundraiser in Henderson
Fundraiser with Lee, then a Las Vegas youth economy event with Ford and Horsford. Source
- 2026-10-07Raphael Warnock event in Las Vegas
Countdown to early voting event. Source
- 2026-09-26Wes Moore event in Las Vegas
Two canvass launches with Nevada Democrats. Source
- 2026-08-05Donald Trump rally in Las Vegas
At a Red Rock Casino event billed around tax relief, Trump called Gov. Lombardo on stage and praised the GOP ticket. Source