How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Idaho Governor
Terri Pickens vs Brad Little
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 259
Raised $218K against $2.3M for Brad Little.
- Cash weight 205
$45K in the bank against $958K for Brad Little.
- Early vote weight 154
Registered Democrats cast 29% of the 28,945 ballots in Idaho so far, against 70% for the other party. That is 10.4 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $45K against $958K.
- Money weight 2591
Raised $2.3M against $218K for Terri Pickens.
- Cash weight 2096
$958K in the bank against $45K for Terri Pickens.
- Early vote weight 1596
Registered Republicans cast 70% of the 28,945 ballots in Idaho so far, against 29% for the other party. That is 10.4 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Terri Pickens trails by 22.5 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 81,765 voters switching sides, or 163,529 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +29.4 and R +15.4. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +10.4. Your best recent poll is Advanced Targeting Research at R +13.5; your worst is Advanced Targeting Research at R +13.5. 1 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Ada, a projected net 7,385 votes; Blaine, a projected net 4,373 votes; Teton, a projected net 898 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Ada, D +3.4, 30.1% of the vote; Latah, D +4.7, 2.4% of the vote; Valley, R +8.8, 0.8% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Terri Pickens runs furthest behind in Blaine, Bonneville, Nez Perce. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 64% of voters, 32 to 56, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.17 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 57% of voters, 35 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.85 points; Women, 51% of voters, 36 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.56 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Terri Pickens: Immigration voters 10 to 78, Small counties 25 to 61, Voters who can afford daily costs 26 to 62. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$45K cash against $958K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 29% of the 28,945 ballots in Idaho so far, against 70% for the other party. That is 10.4 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.4 points away from Terri Pickens. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Brad Little's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Republicans cast 70% of the 28,945 ballots in Idaho so far, against 29% for the other party.
- Protect the lead
Brad Little leads by 22.5 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 163,529 votes; a one point swing is about 3,640 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +15.4 and R +29.4. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +10.4. Your best recent poll is Advanced Targeting Research at R +13.5; your worst is Advanced Targeting Research at R +13.5. 1 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Kootenai, a projected net 27,045 votes; Canyon, a projected net 23,710 votes; Bonneville, a projected net 16,313 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Ada, D +3.4, 30.1% of the vote; Latah, D +4.7, 2.4% of the vote; Valley, R +8.8, 0.8% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Brad Little runs furthest behind in Madison, Gem, Canyon. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 64% of voters, 56 to 32, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.17 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 57% of voters, 51 to 35, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.85 points; Women, 51% of voters, 51 to 36, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.56 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Brad Little: Asian and other voters 30 to 56, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 35 to 48, Health care and Social Security voters 37 to 49. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$958K cash against $45K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 70% of the 28,945 ballots in Idaho so far, against 29% for the other party. That is 10.4 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.4 points toward Brad Little. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Terri Pickens's strongest asset
Money: Raised $218K against $2.3M for Brad Little.
The map for Pickens
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ada | D +3.4 | 30.1% | +7,385 |
| Blaine | D +39.3 | 1.5% | +4,373 |
| Teton | D +16.6 | 0.7% | +898 |
| Latah | D +4.7 | 2.4% | +817 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ada | D +3.4 | 30.1% | +7,385 |
| Latah | D +4.7 | 2.4% | +817 |
| Valley | R +8.8 | 0.8% | -528 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine | D +39.3 | 1.5% | +4,373 |
| Bonneville | R +36.5 | 6.1% | -16,313 |
| Nez Perce | R +29.7 | 2.3% | -4,907 |
The coalition
Pickens against Little among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202464% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.2
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford57% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Women51% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.6
- College graduates43% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.1
- Immigration voters14% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
- Small counties34% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.7
- Voters who can afford daily costs43% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.1
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +22.5
- 8 in 10 land between
- R +15.4 and R +29.4
- Polling average
- R +10.4
- Partisan lean
- R +36.0
- Early vote effect
- R +1.4
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced Targeting Research | 29 | 700 RV | R +13.5 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Pickens | Little | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $218K | $2.3M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $45K | $958K |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Idaho, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 28,945
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +40.2
- Forecast expected
- R +29.8
- Against expectation
- 10.4 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
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Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
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