How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Georgia Governor
Keisha Lance Bottoms vs Rick Jackson
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2518
Raised $28.9M against $130.0M for Rick Jackson.
- Cash weight 2015
$770K in the bank against $4.3M for Rick Jackson.
- Activity weight 1025
3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $770K against $4.3M.
- Money weight 2582
Raised $130.0M against $28.9M for Keisha Lance Bottoms.
- Cash weight 2085
$4.3M in the bank against $770K for Keisha Lance Bottoms.
- Activity weight 1050
8 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
- −6 Contested items in the watchdog file. 3 allegations on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Keisha Lance Bottoms trails by 0.4 and wins 49% of simulations. Closing it takes about 8,643 voters switching sides, or 17,286 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +7.2 and D +6.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +0.2. Your best recent poll is Big Data Poll (R) at D +0.5; your worst is ActiVote at R +3.0. 8 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Fulton, a projected net 233,618 votes; DeKalb, a projected net 223,532 votes; Clayton, a projected net 81,754 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Houston, R +11.2, 1.5% of the vote; Fayette, R +3.3, 1.4% of the vote; Lowndes, R +11.6, 0.9% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Keisha Lance Bottoms runs furthest behind in Hall, Forsyth, Henry. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 68% of voters, 51 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.42 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 63% of voters, 55 to 45, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.14 points; Voters without a degree, 54% of voters, 48 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.73 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Keisha Lance Bottoms: Immigration voters 20 to 79, Small counties 28 to 70, White voters 30 to 68. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$770K cash against $4.3M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Rick Jackson's strongest asset
Cash: $4.3M in the bank against $770K for Keisha Lance Bottoms.
- Protect the lead
Rick Jackson leads by 0.4 in the forecast and wins 51% of simulations. The cushion is about 17,286 votes; a one point swing is about 23,359 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +6.3 and R +7.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +0.2. Your best recent poll is ActiVote at R +3.0; your worst is Big Data Poll (R) at D +0.5. 8 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Cherokee, a projected net 58,190 votes; Forsyth, a projected net 46,444 votes; Hall, a projected net 44,022 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Houston, R +11.2, 1.5% of the vote; Fayette, R +3.3, 1.4% of the vote; Lowndes, R +11.6, 0.9% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Rick Jackson runs furthest behind in Clayton, Muscogee. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 68% of voters, 49 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.42 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 63% of voters, 45 to 55, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.14 points; Voters without a degree, 54% of voters, 51 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.73 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Rick Jackson: Black voters 18 to 80, Large counties 30 to 68, Health care and Social Security voters 32 to 68. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$4.3M cash against $770K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Keisha Lance Bottoms's strongest asset
Activity: 3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
The map for Bottoms
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulton | D +47.8 | 10.5% | +233,618 |
| DeKalb | D +65.7 | 7.3% | +223,532 |
| Clayton | D +74.5 | 2.3% | +81,754 |
| Gwinnett | D +17.8 | 7.8% | +64,622 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | R +11.2 | 1.5% | -7,954 |
| Fayette | R +3.3 | 1.4% | -2,139 |
| Lowndes | R +11.6 | 0.9% | -5,071 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hall | R +50.6 | 1.9% | -44,022 |
| Forsyth | R +39.4 | 2.5% | -46,444 |
| Henry | D +25.9 | 2.4% | +29,251 |
The coalition
Bottoms against Jackson among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202469% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford63% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Voters without a degree55% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.7
- Women53% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.6
- Immigration voters10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Small counties22% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.1
- White voters57% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- The Democratic Governors Association is her financial base. It gave more than $1.6 million to her leadership committee in June and July, per the [AJC]( Her campaign then said the DGA gave $11.5 million of the $23.2 million she raised from August 1 to October 20, per the [AJC]( The October figures are provisional until the filing lands.
- Billionaire Democrats arrived late. JB Pritzker gave $1 million to her leadership fund after the October 20 cutoff, and Michael Bloomberg gave at least $1 million, per the [AJC on October 21](
Top donor blocs: Party and leadership, Billionaire megadonor, Real estate
- Rick Jackson is mostly his own donor. He spent more than $108 million of his own fortune to win the nomination through June 2026, per the [AJC]( and his campaign accounts had raised roughly $130 million through July 31, much of it his own money, per the [AJC on October 21]( Analysts expect about $200 million by Election Day. That is an estimate, not a filing.
- His own company is the largest interest in the file. Jackson Healthcare subsidiaries have received more than $1 billion in payments from Georgia agencies since 2020 and more than $56 million in 2025 alone from Behavioral Health, Community Health and Corrections, per the [AJC on March 5, 2026]( The governor appoints the people who run those agencies.
Top donor blocs: Self funding, Party and leadership, Health care and pharma
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +0.4
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +6.3 and R +7.2
- Polling average
- R +0.2
- Partisan lean
- R +0.7
- Early vote effect
- D +0.1
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | 0 | 755 LV | D +0.3 |
| UGA SPIA for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution | 0 | 1,000 LV | R +1.0 |
| ActiVote | 0 | 400 LV | R +3.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 2 | 800 LV | D +0.1 |
| Big Data Poll (R) | 22 | 678 LV | D +0.5 |
| Big Data Poll | 22 | 678 LV | R +2.5 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 22 | 1,200 LV | Even |
| YouGov | 27 | 3,299 LV | R +2.8 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 31 | 1,019 LV | R +1.6 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Bottoms | Jackson | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $28.9M | $130.0M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $770K | $4.3M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Georgia, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 1,626,003
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +8.5
- Forecast expected
- D +10.1
- Against expectation
- 1.6 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-14Chris Hayes host, leans D
Anchored All In live from Atlanta covering the Georgia governor race. Source
- 2026-10-13Mark Halperin reporter
His 2WAY coverage focused on Republican Rick Jackson's absence from a Georgia governor debate and candidates dodging debates. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-28Barack Obama announced in Atlanta
Rally announced; venue not stated. Source
- 2026-10-28Keisha Lance Bottoms announced in Atlanta
United for Georgia Rally with former President Barack Obama and Sen. Jon Ossoff from 4 to 7 p.m., venue to be emailed to registrants. Source
- 2026-10-23Ted Cruz announced in Locust Grove
Announced 6:30 p.m. Friday rally at the Zipp Hinton hangar in Henry County for the GOP governor nominee. Source
- 2026-10-17Keisha Lance Bottoms rally in Atlanta
Rally with Sen. Jon Ossoff at the Cobb Galleria Centre in Cobb County on the first weekend of early voting, drawing more than 1,500 supporters. Source
- 2026-10-16Donald Trump rally in Dalton
Rally at Dalton Municipal Airport with both GOP nominees. Source
- 2026-10-16Rick Jackson rally in Dalton
Appeared with President Trump and Senate nominee Mike Collins at Trump's Dalton rally. Source
- 2026-10-12Rick Jackson tour stop in Grovetown
Columbia County stop the night before early voting opened, with Gov. Brian Kemp at his side, talking taxes and data centers. Source
- 2026-10-12Rick Jackson tour stop in Atlanta
First stop of a statewide tour with Gov. Brian Kemp and First Lady Marty Kemp on the eve of early voting. Source
- 2026-10-12Keisha Lance Bottoms event in Stockbridge
Met with supporters in Stockbridge on the eve of early voting. Source
- 2026-10-12Keisha Lance Bottoms debate in Atlanta
Atlanta Press Club Loudermilk Young governor debate at the Georgia Public Broadcasting studio, where Bottoms faced an empty podium after Jackson declined. Source
- 2026-10-12Rick Jackson tour stop in Macon
Press event on a one day statewide tour with Gov. Brian Kemp held instead of debating Bottoms, per the AJC's tour plan. Source
- 2026-10-12Rick Jackson tour stop in Columbus
Press event on a one day statewide tour with Gov. Brian Kemp held instead of debating Bottoms, per the AJC's tour plan. Source