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Watchdog file · AK

Dan Sullivan

Republican, running for U.S. Senate. Now U.S. Senate AK.

Tier 2 compactCook: Toss Upadvanced top twoResearch priority 2
Money ties on file19
Researched decisions60 more from office and committees
Interest blocs11
Compiled2026-10-25

Subject: Dan Sullivan, Republican, U.S. Senator from Alaska seeking a third term, 2026 Compiled: October 25, 2026 for the On Point Politics watchdog database, onpointpolitics.us Data cutoff: October 24, 2026. The latest filing figures read are from mid 2026; no third quarter total was found. Next scheduled data drop: FEC pre-general report covering through October 14, 2026, not read in this pass, then the post-general report due December 3, 2026.

Bottom line up front

Sullivan has been outraised by Mary Peltola every quarter but kept a cash lead and a heavier outside air war. His principal committee, Alaskans For Dan Sullivan, FEC C00570994, reported $9.14 million in receipts and $7.30 million in cash, per Legis1 on August 19, 2026, legis1.com. The Senate Leadership Fund put $17 million behind him, per Congress.net on October 13, 2026, congress.net.

Four interests combine money with a decision he controls or shapes:

  1. Senate Republican leadership. The Senate Leadership Fund, the NRSC and the RNC ground game. The decision is the majority.
  2. Pro-Israel donors. AIPAC passed about $250,000 in earmarked gifts to him in the first quarter of 2026 alone. The decision is Israel aid and the Iran war.
  3. Oil and gas. API PAC has given his committee since 2019 and he courts the Alaska Oil and Gas Association. The decision is ANWR and Arctic leasing.
  4. Business PACs. PACs were 24 percent of his first quarter, against 6 percent for Peltola. Former staff now lobby for BP America, Oracle, Blue Origin and Lumen.

Committee structure and treasurer

The campaign committee is Alaskans For Dan Sullivan, FEC C00570994, the ID shown on ProPublica's itemizer, projects.propublica.org. The roster gives candidate ID S4AK00214 and bioguide S001198. The treasurer, any leadership PAC and any joint fundraising committee were not verified.

Scale. He has raised $6.5 million since 2025 through the first quarter, $1.7 million of it in that quarter, per Alaska Public Media on April 28, 2026, ktoo.org. He raised $2 million in the second quarter, less than $1.2 million of it from individuals, with $8.3 million in cash, per the Anchorage Daily News on July 20, 2026, adn.com. His own release claimed more than $3 million and about $10 million in cash, per KTUU on July 15, 2026, alaskasnewssource.com. The gap is unexplained and may reflect other committees.

Party and leadership

Documented. The Senate Leadership Fund committed $17 million. Senate Majority PAC reserved $10 million against him on May 13, 2026, and the RNC sent ground staff, per Alaska Public Media, alaskapublic.org. AdImpact data relayed by KTUU on October 15 show more than $9 million reserved by each side for the final three weeks, with Republicans slightly ahead, alaskasnewssource.com.

Pro-Israel

Documented. AIPAC passed about $250,000 in individual contributions to his campaign in the first quarter of 2026, per Alaska Public Media.

What they want. Support for Israel and a firm Iran policy. The Iran war was a topic at the October 16 debate, but his stated position was not reported in sources read.

Inference: For a campaign with only $135,000 from Alaskans in the same quarter, one conduit's $250,000 is a large share of itemized money.

Oil and gas

Documented. API PAC gave $6,000 across five gifts from June 27, 2019 to May 15, 2024. At the AOGA forum on August 27, 2026 he praised Trump's day one order to unleash Alaska's resources and said a Peltola win would let Democrats keep blocking ANWR, per the Alaska Beacon, alaskabeacon.com.

Inference: Industry PAC money to him is small. The oil bloc's leverage runs through the policy alignment and Alaska's revenue dependence, not through checks found here.

Business PACs and lobbyists

Documented. His first quarter PAC money, about $277,000, came from industry groups, trade associations, legal and lobbying firms and government contractors. The Air Line Pilots Association PAC gave $12,500. Quiver Quantitative lists BP America, Oracle, Blue Origin and Lumen Technologies as lobbying clients of former Sullivan staff, without dates, quiverquant.com.

Own finances and disclosure history

His largest asset is a stake in RPM International, his family's chemical company, valued at $1 million to $5 million. He also lists rental property of up to $500,000, per Newsweek on September 29, 2026, newsweek.com. Quiver estimates his net worth at about $8.4 million. He earns roughly $100,000 a year in investment income beyond his $174,000 salary, and his campaign says most investments are in mutual funds, per the Alaska Beacon on October 6, 2026, alaskabeacon.com.

Enforcement and controversies

  • No FEC or Senate Ethics matter was found in sources read.
  • Wealth. Peltola says he went to Washington with $3 million and now has $8 million. He answered by pointing to her lobbying career, per Fox News on October 16, 2026, foxnews.com.
  • The namesake candidate. The Division of Elections removed Daniel J. Sullivan on June 15, 2026. A judge restored him on June 26 and the Alaska Supreme Court affirmed on June 29. Sullivan's campaign called him a sham candidate, per Straight Arrow News, san.com.
  • He accused Peltola of having debate questions in advance; both moderators said neither candidate did.

Deal table

InterestMoney inAskLeverStakeDecision date
Senate GOP leadershipSLF $17MSenate majorityOrganizing voteSenate controlJanuary 2027
Pro-IsraelAIPAC conduit about $250K Q1 2026Israel aid, Iran policyFloor votes; Armed Services seatNot quantified2027
Oil and gasAPI PAC $6K since 2019ANWR and NPR-A leasingSenate votes, Interior oversightNot quantified2027 to 2028
Business PACsAbout $277K Q1 2026Not statedCommerce, Armed Services, EPW seatsNot quantified2027 to 2028

Levers and calendar

DecisionWho holds it nowWhenWhich donors care
Arctic leasingInterior, Congress2027 to 2028API PAC, BP
NDAAArmed Services2027Defense contractors
AviationCommerce2027 to 2028ALPA
Israel and IranPresident, Senate2027AIPAC donors
Stock ownershipCongress2027 to 2028Ethics groups

Calendar. November 3, 2026 general with ranked choice tabulation afterward. FEC post-general report December 3, 2026. New Congress January 2027, then the FY2028 NDAA through 2027.

What we could not verify

  • Treasurer, leadership PAC, joint fundraising committee.
  • Third quarter and pre-general totals.
  • Named PACs behind the $277,000 and any industry totals.
  • The reason his release and the filings differ for the second quarter.
  • Bodies not read: adn.com which blocked fetching, alaskabeacon.com which failed to load, newsfromthestates.com which failed to load, and adn.com which blocked fetching, and alaskasnewssource.com and axios.com

Every money tie

19 rows, biggest first. Running totals are shaded and should not be added to their parts.
WhoAmountIntoInterestDateStatusSource
Senate Leadership FundIndependent expenditure for$17.0MDan SullivanParty and leadershipas of 2026-10-13Secondarycongress.netSingle secondary outlet
Senate Majority PACIndependent expenditure against$10.0MDan SullivanOpponent contextannounced 2026-05-13Confirmedalaskapublic.orgLater more than $12M per Congress.net
Donors, allIndividual$9.1Mrunning totalAlaskans For Dan Sullivan, FEC C00570994Unresolved individualelection cycle, reported 2026-08-19Confirmedlegis1.comPrincipal committee; cash $7.30M; end date not stated
Donors, allIndividual$6.5Mrunning totalAlaskans For Dan Sullivan, FEC C00570994Unresolved individual2025 through Q1 2026Confirmedktoo.orgCash $7M after Q1
Donors, allIndividual$2.0MAlaskans For Dan Sullivan, FEC C00570994Unresolved individual2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30Confirmedadn.comUnder $1.2M from individuals, rest PACs; cash $8.3M; his campaign release claimed more than $3M and about $10M cash per KTUU, possibly counting other committees
Donors, allIndividual$1.7MAlaskans For Dan Sullivan, FEC C00570994Unresolved individualQ1 2026Confirmedktoo.orgCampaign had announced $2.1M per an Alaska's News Source headline; body not read
PACs, industry, trade, lobbying firms and contractorsPAC$277KAlaskans For Dan Sullivan, FEC C00570994Business PACsQ1 2026Confirmedktoo.org24 percent of receipts; PACs not named
AIPAC conduitPAC$250KAlaskans For Dan Sullivan, FEC C00570994Pro-IsraelQ1 2026Confirmedktoo.orgEarmarked individual gifts
Unitemized small donorsIndividual$90KAlaskans For Dan Sullivan, FEC C00570994Small donorsQ1 2026Confirmedktoo.orgThrough WinRed
Air Line Pilots Association PACPAC$13KAlaskans For Dan Sullivan, FEC C00570994Labor unionsas of 2026-08-19Confirmedlegis1.comDate not stated; Commerce Committee oversees aviation
American Petroleum Institute PACPAC$6Krunning totalAlaskans For Dan Sullivan, FEC C00570994Oil and gas2019-06-27 to 2024-05-15Confirmedprojects.propublica.orgFiling derived itemizer; largest gift $2,000 on 2020-04-01
Republican National CommitteeRelationshipn/aDan SullivanParty and leadership2026-05-13Confirmedalaskapublic.orgGround game staff deployed to Alaska; numbers not given
National Republican Senatorial CommitteeRelationshipn/aDan SullivanParty and leadership2026-06-30Confirmedsan.comAccused Democrats of recruiting the namesake candidate
RPM InternationalRelationshipn/aDan SullivanEnforcement and disclosure2025 disclosureConfirmednewsweek.comFamily chemical company; stake valued $1M to $5M, his largest asset; also in the Alaska Beacon
Alaska Oil and Gas AssociationRelationshipn/aDan SullivanOil and gas2026-08-27Confirmedalaskabeacon.comForum where he praised Trump's day one Alaska resource order
BP AmericaRelationship, one step backn/aFormer Sullivan staff turned lobbyistsOil and gasas of 2026-10-25Secondaryquiverquant.comListed as a lobbying client of former staff; dates and names not shown
Oracle, Blue Origin and Lumen TechnologiesRelationship, one step backn/aFormer Sullivan staff turned lobbyistsTechas of 2026-10-25Secondaryquiverquant.comListed as lobbying clients of former staff; dates and names not shown
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.Relationshipn/aDan SullivanRival context2026-06-29Confirmedsan.comNamesake kept on ballot by the Alaska Supreme Court; Sullivan campaign calls him a sham candidate
Mary PeltolaRelationshipn/aDan SullivanOpponent context2026-08-18Confirmedalaskabeacon.comLed him in the top four primary

Decisions on the desk

What this office controls and which interests care about it
DecisionWhere it sitsWhenWho caresStakePositionSource
ANWR and Arctic oil leasing, NPR-A rulesInterior Department; Senate Energy and EPW2027 to 2028API PAC; BP America lobbyists; AOGANot quantified in sources readPraised Trump's day one order overturning Biden-era limits; warns Democrats would block ANWRalaskabeacon.com
National Defense Authorization Act, including troop paySenate Armed Services, his seatFY2028 bill in 2027Defense contractorsNot quantifiedAttacks Peltola's first NDAA vote; she says she voted yes three other timesfoxnews.com
Aviation and FAA policySenate Commerce, his seat2027 to 2028Air Line Pilots Association PACNot quantifiedNot found in sources readlegis1.com
Israel aid and the Iran warPresident; Senate2027AIPAC conduit donorsNot quantifiedIran war debated October 16; his stated position not reported in sources readfoxnews.com
Congressional stock ownership rulesCongress2027 to 2028Ethics groupsHis RPM stake of $1M to $5MNot found in sources read; answers wealth attacks by pointing to Peltola's lobbyingnewsweek.com
Senate organizing voteSenate RepublicansJanuary 2027Senate Leadership Fund; NRSCSenate majorityRunning to keep the majorityalaskapublic.org
Research notes: findings, inferences and gaps

Audit trail for AK-dan-sullivan, compiled October 25, 2026. The folder AK-daniel-j-sullivan-jr is a different person, the namesake challenger, and was not edited.

Thread 1: Committees and totals

Cited findings

Gaps

  • Q3; pre-general.

Thread 2: Outside money

Cited findings

Thread 3: Own finances

Cited findings

Gaps

  • His own disclosure; trade dates.

Thread 4: Race events

Cited findings

Campaign intel

  • Main message: Alaska resource development and a Republican Senate, casting Peltola as a Lower 48 liberal who would let Democrats block ANWR. alaskabeacon.com
  • Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it: personal enrichment in office, with Peltola saying his wealth went from $3M to $8M; Newsweek relays an $8.4M Quiver estimate. He answers by attacking her lobbying. foxnews.com and newsweek.com
  • Second vulnerability: a thin home base. Only about $135,000 of his first quarter money came from Alaskans, and he trailed Peltola in the primary 41.4 percent to 49.5 percent. ktoo.org and alaskabeacon.com
  • Strongest asset: cash and outside air cover, with $7.30M cash against her $4.64M and $17M from the Senate Leadership Fund. legis1.com and congress.net
  • Notable recent event: a second Dan Sullivan is on the ballot after the Alaska Supreme Court ruled on June 29; the incumbent is listed as the registered Republican incumbent. san.com
  • Final debate October 16 turned on wealth, lobbying and staff treatment. foxnews.com

From the On Point Watchdog Database, compiled 2026-10-25. Researched by the Watchdog desk from sources read in full; rows marked Confirmed mostly rest on news reports rather than the filings themselves, so check a figure against the filing before quoting it. FEC pre general report covers through Oct 14, 2026; post general report due Dec 3, 2026