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Tap a state, a sticky note or a race in the list. Colour is the current On Point average: pale when close, deep when safe.

Every race32

Below the lineAlabama: Jones vs. TubervilleTuberville+11.23 polls

2026 governor

Alabama governor average

Jones vs. Tuberville. Tuberville leads by 11.2 points in the On Point average of 3 public polls: a robust LOWESS fit through every poll, weighted by a 15.8 day recency half life, sample size, voter screen and pollster grade, with three bisquare passes that weigh down outliers.

3 polls3 pollstersUpdated Oct 17, 202630 days −3.2Forecast R +14.6 · open the race Public JSON

Jones40.0

MarginTuberville+11.2

Tuberville51.2

Newest 3 polls

The average over time

Size dots by weight

The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHover or use the arrow keys to read any day

What moves the average today

Share of today's weight

Cygnal (R) for Gray Media and Alabama Daily NewsOct 17 · 500 LV · Gold98%Tuberville+11.2

Napolitan News Service/RMG Research for Alabama Policy Action (R)Sep 25 · 800 RV · C+1.6%Tuberville+13.0

Each poll's weight is its sample size, voter screen, pollster grade and age, with a 15.8 day half life, and those weights are the kernel of a robust LOWESS fit: a local line read at the day itself, with three bisquare passes that weigh down any poll far from the rest. No single poll can carry more than 15 percent. Gold Standard pollsters, On Point Polling, Big Data Poll, The Honest Poll, Emerson, Cygnal, Quantus Insights, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, carry the top grade. Rasmussen Reports and ActiVote are not counted. Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage are marked Lean R and Impact Research Lean D. The tables show every poll as published; the average counts a lean firm's poll moved the other way by its measured lean against other polls of the same races, and the chart shows that move as a hollow dot for the poll as published joined to the filled dot the average counts: Trafalgar 3.8 points right over 35 polls, InsiderAdvantage 4.6 points right over 42 polls, Impact Research 0.0 points left over 0 polls.

All polls

3 of 3


On Point average	Oct 17, 2026	3 polls	40.0	51.2	Tuberville+11.2	100%
Cygnal (R) for Gray Media and Alabama Daily NewsGold	Oct 17, 26	500LV	40	51	Tuberville+11.2	98.4%
Napolitan News Service/RMG Research for Alabama Policy Action (R)C+	Sep 25, 26	800RV	37	50	Tuberville+13.0	1.6%
yes. every kid.NR	Jul 11, 26	601LV	41	49	Tuberville+8.0	0%

Current average

All polls

Jones, Democrat

40.0%

Tuberville, Republican

51.2%

Margin

Tuberville+11.2

The numbers

Polls in the average3

Pollsters3

Newest pollOct 17, 26

Change, 30 days−3.2

The forecast

Safe R

Model marginR +14.6

The model blends this average with partisan lean and fundamentals, then simulates the race thousands of times.

Open the race forecast

Methodology

The On Point average is a robust LOWESS fit through every public poll, rebuilt for every day: each poll is weighted by recency with a 15.8 day half life, sample size, voter screen and pollster grade, a local line is fit through time and read at the day itself, and three bisquare robustness passes weigh down polls far from the rest. Rasmussen Reports and ActiVote are left out, and the measured lean of Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage, to the right, and Impact Research, to the left, is taken off their polls in the average while the tables show them as published. On Point Polling polls are fielded by On Point Polling. How the average works.

Voter sample

Tuberville+11.2
3 polls in the average