SearchThe Weighting Room
12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
2026 Democratic primary

Texas Senate Democratic primary average

Talarico won the March 3, 2026 primary with 52.5 percent. The final On Point average of 13 public polls had Talarico ahead at 49.6 percent.

13 pollsLast poll Mar 2, 2026Primary Mar 3, 2026Result in

Average over time

Each dot is one poll
Talarico49.6Crockett43.6Hassan0.3

The average against the result

Winner called
CandidateAverageResultErrorAverage and result
Talarico49.6%52.45%−2.9
Crockett43.6%46.22%−2.6
Hassan0.3%1.34%−1.0
WinnerTalarico
Mean absolute error2.2 pts
Result marginTalarico +6.20
Average marginTalarico +6.0

Bars show the result; the white tick marks the final average. More than 95% reporting. Results from official Texas election returns.

All polls

13 polls
PollsterEnd dateSampleTalaricoCrockettHassanSpread
On Point averageMar 2, 202613 polls49.6%43.6%0.3%Talarico +6.0
Result More than 95% reportingMar 3, 20262,309,696 votes52.45%46.22%1.34%Talarico +6.20
YouGovMar 2, 20262,400LV53%40%Talarico +13.0
EmersonFeb 27, 2026850LV52%47%1%Talarico +5.0
Public Policy PollingFeb 25, 2026599LV48%42%Talarico +6.0
Chism/BlueprintFeb 24, 2026472LV52%40%Talarico +12.0
University of Texas / Texas Politics ProjectFeb 16, 2026369RV44%56%Crockett +12.0
Impact ResearchFeb 12, 2026800LV47%43%Talarico +4.0
University of HoustonJan 31, 2026550LV39%47%2%Crockett +8.0
TPORJan 21, 20261,290LV37%38%Crockett +1.0
HIT StrategiesJan 15, 20261,005LV33%46%Crockett +13.0
EmersonJan 12, 2026413LV47%38%1%Talarico +9.0
TSUDec 11, 20251,600LV43%51%Crockett +8.0
U. of Houston/TSUOct 1, 2025478RV34%52%Crockett +18.0
TPORAug 29, 2025267RV27%26%Talarico +1.0