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GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
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Tap a state, a sticky note or a race in the list. Colour is the current On Point average: pale when close, deep when safe.

KeySafe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe RLean IDrawing the map
Every race31
Below the lineIowa: Turek vs. HinsonTurek+1.634 polls
2026 Senate

Iowa Senate average

Turek vs. Hinson. Turek leads by 1.6 points in the On Point average of 34 public polls: a robust LOWESS fit through every poll, weighted by a 15.8 day recency half life, sample size, voter screen and pollster grade, with three bisquare passes that weigh down outliers.

34 polls25 pollstersUpdated Oct 21, 202630 days +0.8Forecast D +2.1 · open the racePublic JSON
Turek48.5
MarginTurek+1.6
Hinson46.9
Newest 30 polls
The average over time
38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%MayJunJulAugSepOct48.5Turek46.9Hinson
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHollow dot: a lean firm's poll as published; the filled dot is where the average counts it, after its measured lean is taken offHover or use the arrow keys to read any day

What moves the average today

Share of today's weight
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanySep 28 · 1,008 LV · A++16%Turek+2.0
Quantus InsightsSep 29 · 714 LV · Gold16%Hinson+1.9
On Point PollingOct 21 · 491 LV · Gold15%Turek+4.7
New York Times/SienaOct 1 · 606 LV · Gold14%Hinson+1.0
New York Times/SienaSep 30 · 600 LV · Gold9.8%Hinson+1.0
Emerson College/Nexstar MediaOct 6 · 650 LV · Gold8.8%Hinson+2.0
Trafalgar Group (R)Oct 15 · 1,094 LV · A- · R lean, counted Turek+2.1 in the average4.3%Hinson+1.7
InsiderAdvantageSep 23 · 1,200 LV · A+ · R lean, counted Turek+6.3 in the average4.2%Turek+1.7
Every other poll together: 11%

Each poll's weight is its sample size, voter screen, pollster grade and age, with a 15.8 day half life, and those weights are the kernel of a robust LOWESS fit: a local line read at the day itself, with three bisquare passes that weigh down any poll far from the rest. No single poll can carry more than 15 percent. Gold Standard pollsters, On Point Polling, Big Data Poll, The Honest Poll, Emerson, Cygnal, Quantus Insights, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, carry the top grade. Rasmussen Reports and ActiVote are not counted. Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage are marked Lean R and Impact Research Lean D. The tables show every poll as published; the average counts a lean firm's poll moved the other way by its measured lean against other polls of the same races, and the chart shows that move as a hollow dot for the poll as published joined to the filled dot the average counts: Trafalgar 3.8 points right over 35 polls, InsiderAdvantage 4.6 points right over 42 polls, Impact Research 0.0 points left over 0 polls.

All polls

34 of 34
On Point averageOct 21, 202634 polls48.546.9Turek+1.6100%
On Point PollingGoldOct 21, 26491LV5247Turek+4.715.3%
co/efficient (R)C+Oct 19, 26863LV4548Hinson+3.01.8%
Trafalgar Group (R)A-Lean ROct 15, 261,094LV4446Hinson+1.74.3%
Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group and New River StrategiesNROct 13, 26602LV4644Turek+2.00.6%
YouGovCOct 12, 262,245LV4746Turek+1.02.8%
National Public AffairsNROct 12, 26678LV4447Hinson+3.00.8%
Marist CollegeCOct 11, 26512LV4845Turek+3.00.5%
Emerson College/Nexstar MediaGoldOct 6, 26650LV4547Hinson+2.08.8%
CNN/SSRSCOct 5, 26801LV4345Hinson+2.00.2%
Suffolk UniversityB+Oct 4, 26500LV4844Turek+4.40.8%
New York Times/SienaGoldOct 1, 26606LV4748Hinson+1.014.1%
New York Times/SienaGoldSep 30, 26600LV4748Hinson+1.09.8%
Voter sample
Turek+1.6
34 polls in the average