2026 forecast · Indiana State Comptroller
Elise Nieshalla is very likely to win Indiana's state comptroller race.
Jessica Bailey vs Elise Nieshalla, with Elise Nieshalla running again. The model has Nieshalla ahead by 11.5 points, with a 95 percent chance of winning.
Likely RModel R +11.5Updated October 22, 2026
Jessica Bailey
Democrat
41.9%
991,438 projected votes
Elise Nieshalla
Republican
53.4%
1,263,877 projected votes
95%Nieshalla
5%Bailey
Nieshalla very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Nieshalla wins about 95 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Bailey +155,747 net votes from 5 countiesStatewide R +11.5, a 272,436 vote marginNieshalla +428,183 net votes from 87 counties
Projected statewide vote
2,365,493 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Elise Nieshalla R | 1,263,877 | 53.4% |
| Jessica Bailey D | 991,438 | 41.9% |
| John Schick | 110,177 | 4.7% |
| Total | 2,365,493 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
92 counties| County | Bailey | Nieshalla | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 991,441 | 1,263,877 | 110,178 | 2,365,496 | R +11.5 |
| Marion County | 209,625 | 104,387 | 15,340 | 329,352 | D +31.9 |
| Lake County | 94,005 | 70,977 | 8,061 | 173,043 | D +13.3 |
| Allen County | 58,107 | 67,494 | 6,136 | 131,737 | R +7.1 |
| Hamilton County | 57,112 | 59,725 | 5,707 | 122,544 | R +2.1 |
| St. Joseph County | 48,464 | 41,521 | 4,397 | 94,382 | D +7.4 |
| Tippecanoe County | 34,084 | 30,580 | 3,160 | 67,824 | D +5.2 |
| Elkhart County | 23,303 | 41,235 | 3,153 | 67,691 | R +26.5 |
| Vanderburgh County | 28,229 | 32,295 | 2,958 | 63,482 | R +6.4 |
| Hendricks County | 24,477 | 34,889 | 2,900 | 62,266 | R +16.7 |
| Porter County | 28,532 | 30,460 | 2,882 | 61,874 | R +3.1 |
| Johnson County | 18,897 | 35,142 | 2,640 | 56,679 | R +28.7 |
| Monroe County | 34,010 | 16,976 | 2,490 | 53,476 | D +31.9 |
| Madison County | 17,752 | 26,704 | 2,172 | 46,628 | R +19.2 |
| Clark County | 17,875 | 23,714 | 2,032 | 43,621 | R +13.4 |
| Delaware County | 17,944 | 21,486 | 1,927 | 41,357 | R +8.6 |
| LaPorte County | 17,694 | 20,131 | 1,847 | 39,672 | R +6.1 |
| Vigo County | 16,214 | 19,975 | 1,768 | 37,957 | R +9.9 |
| Howard County | 9,766 | 17,957 | 1,355 | 29,078 | R +28.2 |
| Hancock County | 9,701 | 17,986 | 1,352 | 29,039 | R +28.5 |
| Bartholomew County | 10,595 | 16,620 | 1,330 | 28,545 | R +21.1 |
| Floyd County | 12,197 | 14,742 | 1,315 | 28,254 | R +9.0 |
| Kosciusko County | 6,662 | 19,729 | 1,290 | 27,681 | R +47.2 |
| Morgan County | 6,035 | 18,265 | 1,186 | 25,486 | R +48.0 |
| Boone County | 10,506 | 13,371 | 1,166 | 25,043 | R +11.4 |
| Grant County | 7,056 | 15,322 | 1,094 | 23,472 | R +35.2 |
| Wayne County | 8,039 | 14,005 | 1,077 | 23,121 | R +25.8 |
| Warrick County | 8,087 | 13,462 | 1,053 | 22,602 | R +23.8 |
| Dearborn County | 3,896 | 13,231 | 836 | 17,963 | R +52.0 |
| Henry County | 4,854 | 11,907 | 819 | 17,580 | R +40.1 |
| Noble County | 4,078 | 11,341 | 753 | 16,172 | R +44.9 |
| Lawrence County | 4,050 | 11,197 | 745 | 15,992 | R +44.7 |
| Shelby County | 4,256 | 10,802 | 735 | 15,793 | R +41.5 |
| Marshall County | 4,587 | 10,416 | 732 | 15,735 | R +37.0 |
| Jackson County | 3,683 | 11,165 | 726 | 15,574 | R +48.0 |
| DeKalb County | 4,086 | 10,182 | 696 | 14,964 | R +40.7 |
| Dubois County | 4,486 | 9,686 | 692 | 14,864 | R +35.0 |
| Harrison County | 3,906 | 9,397 | 650 | 13,953 | R +39.4 |
| Putnam County | 3,387 | 9,514 | 631 | 13,532 | R +45.3 |
| Montgomery County | 3,515 | 9,143 | 618 | 13,276 | R +42.4 |
| Cass County | 3,689 | 8,752 | 608 | 13,049 | R +38.8 |
| Huntington County | 3,421 | 8,951 | 604 | 12,976 | R +42.6 |
| Miami County | 3,008 | 9,126 | 593 | 12,727 | R +48.1 |
| Knox County | 3,360 | 8,748 | 591 | 12,699 | R +42.4 |
| Steuben County | 3,729 | 8,240 | 584 | 12,553 | R +35.9 |
| LaGrange County | 2,807 | 9,143 | 584 | 12,534 | R +50.5 |
| Whitley County | 3,089 | 8,376 | 560 | 12,025 | R +44.0 |
| Jefferson County | 4,002 | 7,333 | 554 | 11,889 | R +28.0 |
| Jasper County | 2,769 | 8,208 | 536 | 11,513 | R +47.2 |
| Gibson County | 2,920 | 7,887 | 529 | 11,336 | R +43.8 |
| Adams County | 2,751 | 7,928 | 522 | 11,201 | R +46.2 |
| Greene County | 2,705 | 7,761 | 512 | 10,978 | R +46.1 |
| Wabash County | 2,775 | 7,668 | 510 | 10,953 | R +44.7 |
| Clinton County | 2,902 | 7,436 | 505 | 10,843 | R +41.8 |
| Daviess County | 1,977 | 8,166 | 496 | 10,639 | R +58.2 |
| Ripley County | 2,044 | 7,495 | 466 | 10,005 | R +54.5 |
| Washington County | 2,354 | 6,992 | 456 | 9,802 | R +47.3 |
| Wells County | 2,096 | 7,088 | 449 | 9,633 | R +51.8 |
| Jennings County | 2,114 | 6,976 | 443 | 9,533 | R +51.0 |
| Clay County | 2,092 | 6,642 | 426 | 9,160 | R +49.7 |
| Decatur County | 1,960 | 6,713 | 423 | 9,096 | R +52.3 |
| Posey County | 2,640 | 5,811 | 413 | 8,864 | R +35.8 |
| White County | 2,416 | 5,741 | 398 | 8,555 | R +38.9 |
| Randolph County | 2,057 | 6,033 | 396 | 8,486 | R +46.9 |
| Scott County | 2,297 | 5,779 | 395 | 8,471 | R +41.1 |
| Fayette County | 1,926 | 5,882 | 381 | 8,189 | R +48.3 |
| Starke County | 2,132 | 5,633 | 379 | 8,144 | R +43.0 |
| Franklin County | 1,529 | 6,175 | 376 | 8,080 | R +57.5 |
| Owen County | 2,027 | 5,356 | 361 | 7,744 | R +43.0 |
| Sullivan County | 1,972 | 5,267 | 354 | 7,593 | R +43.4 |
| Carroll County | 1,798 | 5,094 | 337 | 7,229 | R +45.6 |
| Spencer County | 2,117 | 4,594 | 328 | 7,039 | R +35.2 |
| Fulton County | 1,794 | 4,885 | 327 | 7,006 | R +44.1 |
| Perry County | 2,591 | 3,971 | 321 | 6,883 | R +20.1 |
| Orange County | 1,729 | 4,808 | 319 | 6,856 | R +44.9 |
| Jay County | 1,620 | 4,834 | 316 | 6,770 | R +47.5 |
| Brown County | 2,065 | 3,518 | 273 | 5,856 | R +24.8 |
| Rush County | 1,381 | 4,178 | 272 | 5,831 | R +48.0 |
| Fountain County | 1,221 | 4,326 | 270 | 5,817 | R +53.4 |
| Parke County | 1,302 | 4,171 | 267 | 5,740 | R +50.0 |
| Tipton County | 1,407 | 3,828 | 255 | 5,490 | R +44.1 |
| Vermillion County | 1,641 | 3,551 | 253 | 5,445 | R +35.1 |
| Newton County | 1,134 | 3,599 | 231 | 4,964 | R +49.6 |
| Pulaski County | 1,064 | 3,096 | 203 | 4,363 | R +46.6 |
| Pike County | 1,041 | 3,026 | 199 | 4,266 | R +46.5 |
| Blackford County | 1,095 | 2,864 | 194 | 4,153 | R +42.6 |
| Crawford County | 1,047 | 2,525 | 175 | 3,747 | R +39.5 |
| Martin County | 731 | 2,569 | 161 | 3,461 | R +53.1 |
| Switzerland County | 795 | 2,449 | 158 | 3,402 | R +48.6 |
| Warren County | 670 | 2,175 | 139 | 2,984 | R +50.4 |
| Benton County | 792 | 2,035 | 138 | 2,965 | R +41.9 |
| Union County | 578 | 1,800 | 116 | 2,494 | R +49.0 |
| Ohio County | 516 | 1,544 | 101 | 2,161 | R +47.5 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between R +2.3 and R +20.7. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket | R +9.6 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +8.2 |
| Blend of every leg | R +8.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +12.1 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +11.5 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +2.3 and R +20.7.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Bailey | Nieshalla | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||