23,979,110 ballots cast so far
New Hampshire has not reported any 2026 early ballots yet. The count appears here the day it does.
Which way the early vote is pointing
Every Senate and governor race the forecast has within 8 points, in a state reporting ballots. The bar runs from the early vote the underdog needs to flip the race to where it is now. Open a state for its full benchmarks.
The electorate of the 0 ballots cast
Every ballot cast so far, by the voters behind it: the forecast’s own 2026 electorate, split by who votes by mail, early in person or on Election Day, set to each state's live count and party split. Compare it with the whole electorate the forecast expects by Election Day.
How it works: every county starts from the 1,152 voter types the forecast simulates in it, by age, race, college, party, 2022 and 2024 vote history and Trump approval, each with its chance of voting. A model of On Point Polling likely voters gives each type its chance of voting by mail, early in person or on Election Day under the state’s ballot rules, and respondents add the share of women in each type and how many of the 2018 and 2020 elections it voted in. Those mixes are set to the ballots each state has actually cast by mail and in person, and to its party split, reported or modeled. Where a state publishes early voters by age, race or gender, that dimension follows the state’s count. These are estimates, not voter file counts.
Party registration of the voters who cast these ballots, in the states that publish it. It is not how they voted.
Pace compares each state with its own 2022 count at the same number of days before Election Day. Open a state for its pace chart, or read the then and now section below.
Every reporting state
45 states| State | Ballots | In person | Of 2022 turnout | Pace | Dem | Rep | Modeled D ballots | Modeled R ballots | Vs expected | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 3,082,458 | 182,193 | 2,900,265 | 37.8% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 1,056,23734.3% modeled | 1,299,79642.2% | D +1.1 |
| California | 2,762,552 | 2,762,552 | 0 | 24.8% | +14% | n/a | n/a | 1,632,63959.1% modeled | 754,26027.3% | D +10.4 |
| Florida | 2,309,315 | 1,304,765 | 1,004,550 | 29.6% | -10% | 39.9% | 39.6% | 937,96140.6% | 896,86638.8% | R +5.7 |
| Georgia | 1,467,780 | 71,081 | 1,396,699 | 37.0% | -4% | n/a | n/a | 629,54042.9% modeled | 504,80634.4% | R +1.6 |
| North Carolina | 1,453,516 | 58,392 | 1,395,124 | 38.3% | +36% | 41.4% | 24.0% | 613,46042.2% | 339,34123.3% | D +0.3 |
| Michigan | 986,207 | 986,207 | 0 | 21.9% | -2% | n/a | n/a | 544,72555.2% modeled | 194,49019.7% | D +2.0 |
| Virginia | 938,185 | 253,390 | 684,795 | 31.0% | +55% | n/a | n/a | 456,25048.6% modeled | 232,79024.8% | R +1.3 |
| Ohio | 922,826 | 395,061 | 527,765 | 22.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 388,02042.0% modeled | 302,84532.8% | R +1.2 |
| Arizona | 861,138 | 861,138 | 0 | 33.2% | +22% | 38.4% | 38.7% | 332,18838.6% | 331,53038.5% | D +3.4 |
| Colorado | 794,497 | 789,459 | 5,038 | 31.3% | +61% | 32.6% | 24.7% | 260,41132.8% | 195,28624.6% | D +4.9 |
| Illinois | 781,348 | 443,833 | 337,515 | 18.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 470,93360.3% modeled | 137,05617.5% | D +1.4 |
| Washington | 773,792 | 773,792 | 0 | 25.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 503,77465.1% modeled | 145,24018.8% | D +13.5 |
| Pennsylvania | 720,664 | 720,664 | 0 | 13.3% | -10% | 67.0% | 24.1% | 483,00967.0% | 173,36124.1% | R +0.1 |
| Tennessee | 665,602 | 0 | 665,602 | 37.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 152,99623.0% modeled | 324,63748.8% | R +0.6 |
| Wisconsin | 525,954 | 377,058 | 148,896 | 19.7% | +21% | n/a | n/a | 250,76747.7% modeled | 116,46622.1% | R +0.7 |
| Oregon | 489,294 | 489,294 | 0 | 24.5% | n/a | 46.1% | 29.4% | 225,70846.1% | 144,03829.4% | D +8.5 |
| New Jersey | 435,358 | 435,358 | 0 | 16.5% | -2% | 65.5% | 18.9% | 285,22965.5% | 82,38018.9% | D +7.7 |
| Minnesota | 419,189 | 177,841 | 241,348 | 16.6% | +29% | n/a | n/a | 231,05455.1% modeled | 78,42618.7% | D +0.3 |
| South Carolina | 389,672 | 26,106 | 363,566 | 22.7% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 151,55338.9% modeled | 158,55640.7% | R +0.8 |
| Nevada | 324,538 | 206,041 | 118,497 | 31.7% | +8% | 39.3% | 35.7% | 129,44139.9% | 112,87034.8% | D +7.8 |
Counts come from civicAPI, which collects them from state election offices. Each state reports on its own schedule and publishes different breakdowns, so a state with no party split simply does not publish one. Pace uses each state's published 2022 and 2024 early vote checkpoints.