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GA GovBottoms D +0.6SC SenAndrews D +1.4NE GovPillen R +1.5AK SenPeltola D +1.6IA SenTurek D +2.1ME SenJackson D +2.2TX SenTalarico D +2.4TX GovAbbott R +2.6KS GovHolscher D +2.6WI GovCrowley D +2.7KS SenHamilton D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.0MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.0NV GovFord D +3.3OH SenBrown D +3.7OH GovActon D +4.1
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Tap a state, a sticky note or a race in the list. Colour is the current On Point average: pale when close, deep when safe.

KeySafe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe RLean IDrawing the map
Every race31
Below the lineOhio: Brown vs. HustedBrown+3.931 polls
2026 Senate

Ohio Senate average

Brown vs. Husted. Brown leads by 3.9 points in the On Point average of 31 public polls: a robust LOWESS fit through every poll, weighted by a 15.8 day recency half life, sample size, voter screen and pollster grade, with three bisquare passes that weigh down outliers.

31 polls23 pollstersUpdated Oct 19, 202630 days −2.6Forecast D +3.7 · open the racePublic JSON
Brown48.7
MarginBrown+3.9
Husted44.8
Newest 30 polls
The average over time
38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%MayJunJulAugSepOct48.7Brown44.8Husted
The line is the On Point average: a robust LOWESS fit through the polls, weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade, refit three times so outliers count for lessDot size is each poll's weight todayHollow dot: a lean firm's poll as published; the filled dot is where the average counts it, after its measured lean is taken offHover or use the arrow keys to read any day

What moves the average today

Share of today's weight
New York Times/Siena UniversityOct 1 · 616 LV · Gold17%Brown+3.0
New York Times/SienaSep 30 · 600 LV · Gold17%Brown+3.0
On Point PollingOct 17 · 635 LV · Gold14%Brown+4.3
Quantus InsightsSep 23 · 695 LV · Gold13%Brown+0.5
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanyOct 19 · 1,592 LV · A++12%Brown+5.0
InsiderAdvantageSep 29 · 1,200 LV · A+ · R lean, counted Brown+5.6 in the average6.6%Brown+1.0
Big Data PollSep 27 · 682 LV · Gold5.9%Brown+4.4
Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group and New River StrategiesOct 13 · 959 LV · NR3.7%Brown+6.0
Every other poll together: 12%

Each poll's weight is its sample size, voter screen, pollster grade and age, with a 15.8 day half life, and those weights are the kernel of a robust LOWESS fit: a local line read at the day itself, with three bisquare passes that weigh down any poll far from the rest. No single poll can carry more than 15 percent. Gold Standard pollsters, On Point Polling, Big Data Poll, The Honest Poll, Emerson, Cygnal, Quantus Insights, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, carry the top grade. Rasmussen Reports and ActiVote are not counted. Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage are marked Lean R and Impact Research Lean D. The tables show every poll as published; the average counts a lean firm's poll moved the other way by its measured lean against other polls of the same races, and the chart shows that move as a hollow dot for the poll as published joined to the filled dot the average counts: Trafalgar 3.8 points right over 35 polls, InsiderAdvantage 4.6 points right over 42 polls, Impact Research 0.0 points left over 0 polls.

All polls

31 of 31
On Point averageOct 19, 202631 polls48.744.8Brown+3.9100%
Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & CompanyA++Oct 19, 261,592LV5247Brown+5.012.0%
Marist UniversityCOct 18, 26883LV4844Brown+4.01.6%
On Point PollingGoldOct 17, 26635LV4742Brown+4.313.5%
Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group and New River StrategiesNROct 13, 26959LV4943Brown+6.03.7%
Bowling Green State University/YouGovCOct 9, 261,000LV4842Brown+6.00.9%
co/efficient (R)C+Oct 6, 26925LV4344Husted+1.00.7%
CNN/SSRSCOct 5, 26760LV4943Brown+6.00.7%
New York Times/Siena UniversityGoldOct 1, 26616LV4946Brown+3.016.5%
New York Times/SienaGoldSep 30, 26600LV4946Brown+3.016.5%
YouGovCSep 30, 263,780LV4945Brown+4.03.2%
InsiderAdvantageA+Lean RSep 29, 261,200LV4443Brown+1.06.6%
Big Data PollGoldSep 27, 26682LV4743Brown+4.45.9%
Voter sample
Brown+3.9
31 polls in the average